Friedberg @ 00:58:46Inconclusive
aitech
Regardless of whether current training scaling laws continue to hold, there will be at least 10 more years of significant AI innovation driven by other axes such as inference-time compute, context window expansion, and architectural improvements.
Even if scaling laws for training break, we have another decade of innovation ahead of us.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s time horizon is ~10 years from the podcast release date of 7 Dec 2024. Adding 10 years gives 2034 as the endpoint, which is well beyond the current date of 30 Nov 2025. Since fewer than two years have elapsed, we cannot yet assess whether there will indeed be “another decade of innovation ahead of us,” regardless of whether training scaling laws break. Therefore, the status of this prediction is inconclusive (too early to tell).