By the end of 2023 there were clear, observable signs of incremental weakening at the margins of the dollar’s unquestioned dominance—of exactly the sort the normalized prediction specified—even though the dollar remained firmly the top reserve currency.

1. Non‑USD settlement in major trade blocs/energy trade

   • China and Brazil reached a deal in March 2023 to conduct trade in their own currencies, establishing a yuan clearing bank in Brazil so transactions could avoid the dollar.(en.mercopress.com)
   • China’s CNOOC and France’s TotalEnergies completed China’s first LNG trade settled in yuan in March 2023, followed by further yuan‑settled LNG trades (e.g., with Engie and others) later in 2023. These were explicitly framed as efforts to promote multi‑currency pricing and reduce reliance on the dollar in energy trade.(brecorder.com)
   • Saudi Arabia’s finance minister stated in January 2023 that the kingdom was open to trading in currencies other than the U.S. dollar for the first time in nearly 50 years—symbolically important given Saudi Arabia’s central role in oil markets and the historical “petrodollar” system.(en.wikipedia.org)

2. Gradual erosion in reserve-share metrics (but not a collapse)

   • IMF COFER data show the dollar’s share of global FX reserves continuing its long, slow decline—from about 70% in 2000 to around 59.2% by Q3 2023.(countercurrents.org)
   • A 2023–24 synthesis of COFER data puts the dollar at roughly 58–59% of allocated reserves by Q4 2023, confirming a multi‑decade downtrend rather than a sudden collapse.(bestbrokers.com)

3. How this lines up with the prediction

   • The prediction (as normalized) only required that by the end of 2023 there be observable signs that the dollar’s de facto reserve‑currency status had begun to weaken, such as increased use of non‑USD settlement in major trade blocs. Those signs clearly existed in 2023 via high‑profile energy and trade deals in local currencies and explicit political moves (Saudi signaling, BRICS rhetoric) to explore non‑dollar options.(en.wikipedia.org)
   • At the same time, major analyses (e.g., the Atlantic Council’s 2024 “Dollar Dominance Monitor”) emphasize that the dollar’s overall dominance in reserves, invoicing, and FX turnover remained secure and that BRICS de‑dollarization made little tangible progress by standard macro metrics.(investing.com)

Taken together, 2023 did not mark a collapse of dollar dominance, but it did deliver exactly what Friedberg described: visible, widely discussed early moves toward diversification away from the dollar—especially in energy and South–South trade—consistent with the “beginning of the end” of completely unquestioned dollar reserve dominance. Hence, on the normalized criterion (“observable signs”), the prediction is best scored as right.