Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
aieconomyclimate
Between 2025 and 2035, deployment and use of AI systems will drive a very large increase in electrical power demand in the United States (materially above current levels attributable to non‑AI uses).
there's no question that AI is going to create a huge need for power over the next 5 or 10 years.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, it is far too early to definitively judge a 5–10 year prediction about U.S. power demand driven by AI.

What we can say based on current evidence:

  • Multiple analyses (e.g., from the International Energy Agency and major U.S. utilities) project that rapidly growing data center and AI workloads will significantly increase electricity demand through the late 2020s and early 2030s, with some U.S. regions revising long‑term load forecasts sharply upward and explicitly citing AI/data centers as a key driver.
  • However, these are projections covering much of the 2025–2035 period; they do not yet constitute retrospective evidence that a “very large increase” has actually occurred over the full window the prediction refers to.
  • Only ~2 months have elapsed since the October 3, 2025 podcast release, and we are only at the very beginning of the stated 5–10 year horizon (2025–2035). Even if early signs and forecasts strongly support the prediction’s plausibility, it cannot yet be confirmed or falsified in outcome terms.

Because the time window has not come close to ending and the claim is explicitly about what will happen over the next 5 or 10 years, the correct status today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not “right” or “wrong.”