Parts of the prediction materialized, but the core claim about meaningful near‑term adoption that reduces or replaces traditional agents has not.

1. Startups did appear quickly and fit the described model.
After the March 2024 NAR commission settlement and related rule changes (implemented August 17, 2024), multiple startups launched or repositioned specifically around AI‑enabled, direct‑to‑consumer home‑buying tools:

• reAlpha launched an AI-powered, commission‑free “Super App” with Claire, a generative‑AI buyer’s agent, explicitly timed to the NAR rule changes and pitched as an end‑to‑end alternative to traditional buyer’s agents, including AI document review, negotiation guidance, and human backup when needed. (stocktitan.net)
• Modern Realty (YC S24) offers an AI real estate agent that guides buyers through the process, including disclosure summaries, offer generation, and scheduling showings; it frames itself as helping people buy homes “without relying on a traditional realtor,” though humans still review key steps. (ycombinator.com)
• Homa targets unrepresented buyers, using AI to generate CMAs, fill out state‑specific forms, and coach negotiations; it’s explicitly designed for buyers who want to navigate without an agent. (housingwire.com)
• Joy AI, RealStar AI, reAlpha, Ridley, and others market AI “real estate agents” or AI‑heavy, low‑ or no‑commission models that handle search, disclosure/document review, and negotiation support, often citing the NAR/DOJ changes as part of their rationale. (reddit.com)
• A 2025 Business Insider roundup highlights eight post‑settlement startups (including Homa and Ridley) using AI or other tech to cut commissions and reduce reliance on traditional agents. (businessinsider.com)

So the “a lot of startups will show up fast with AI, a‑la‑carte, DTC services” component is directionally correct.

2. But traditional agents remain overwhelmingly dominant, with little evidence of “meaningful adoption” of AI DTC alternatives.

• NAR’s 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (covering July 2024–June 2025, i.e., post‑settlement) reports that 88% of buyers purchased through an agent or broker and 91% of sellers used an agent—matching or exceeding prior highs. FSBO sales are at or near record lows (~5–6%). (nar.realtor)
  This indicates that, at the market level, buyers and sellers have not shifted away from traditional agents in any large way.
• Legal/industry analyses note that commissions have barely moved and that agents often arrange commission splits informally, blunting the rule changes. A RISMedia/ABA discussion finds early “workaround” startups that advertised commissions outside the MLS “did not catch on.” (rismedia.com)
• NAR‑cited data for 2023–2025 shows buyers’ reliance on agents actually increasing slightly vs. pre‑settlement years (roughly mid‑80s% up to high‑80s%), which is the opposite of a rapid shift toward AI‑only services. (houstonagentmagazine.com)

3. Current AI real‑estate platforms are niche in scale and usually augment agents rather than replace them.

• The HousingWire feature profiling reAlpha, Modern Realty, and Homa explicitly frames these as early, limited‑geography platforms (e.g., reAlpha only in Florida, Modern Realty only in California; Homa just launched and is bootstrapped), with humans still involved for offers and negotiations. (housingwire.com)
• Linkhome/HomeGPT, an AI‑driven brokerage active since before the settlement, processed about $48.6M in 2024 transaction volume vs. roughly $1.5T in total U.S. home sales—on the order of 0.003% of market volume, underscoring that even one of the “fastest‑growing AI real estate platforms” is still tiny at national scale. (streetinsider.com)
• Market research on “AI in real estate” finds growth primarily in tools used by agents (lead gen, pricing, marketing), with the real estate agent segment holding the largest share of AI‑related usage—again indicating augmentation of agents rather than mass consumer migration to agent‑free AI platforms. (market.us)

4. Timing: the “near term” window has passed without clear displacement of agents.
The prediction was made in March 2024 about effects “coming out of this ruling” and “show[ing] up real fast.” By late 2025:

• NAR data shows no material drop in buyers’ use of agents; if anything, usage ticks slightly up, and FSBO is at record lows. (nar.realtor)
• Multiple consumer‑facing articles on the settlement emphasize that average commission rates and agent usage have barely changed, citing inertia and limited consumer awareness. (kiplinger.com)
• AI‑driven platforms are still described as emerging, “looking to find their stride in 2025,” and mostly confined to a handful of states. (loyaltyhomegroup.com)

Conclusion
The narrow part of the forecast—a wave of AI‑enabled, DTC, a‑la‑carte real estate startups appearing quickly after the NAR settlement—is supported by the evidence. But the crucial part—that these offerings would be compelling enough, in the near term, to meaningfully reduce or replace the need for traditional residential agents—has not happened. The overwhelming majority of buyers and sellers still use agents at historically high rates, commissions have barely shifted, and AI platforms remain niche and often agent‑augmented.

On balance, the prediction as stated is wrong.