Summary: The prediction that “no one’s gonna go back to the movie theaters” and that post‑COVID demand for traditional theaters would collapse and not recover to pre‑2020 norms is overstated and wrong. While the industry remains structurally weaker and below 2019 levels, audiences did return in large numbers and box office largely rebounded.

Key evidence:

1. Domestic box office strongly recovered vs. 2020–2021

   • U.S./Canada box office revenue was $11.4B in 2019 (last pre‑COVID year). In 2020 it crashed to ~$2.2B, then recovered to $4.5B in 2021, $7.45B in 2022, and $9.03B in 2023. (investor.amctheatres.com)
   • 2023’s ~$9.0B is only ~21% below 2019 and is the highest total since the pandemic, with analysts framing it as a major post‑pandemic rebound. (forbes.com)
     This is a significant recovery, not a permanent collapse of demand.

2. Attendance is down vs. 2019 but still very large

   • Industry data from AMC’s 2023 10‑K (citing NATO/Comscore) show North American admissions of 833M in 2023 vs. 1.244B in 2019—about two‑thirds of pre‑COVID ticket volume. (investor.amctheatres.com)
   • That’s a material decline, but hundreds of millions of tickets sold annually directly contradict any notion that “no one” went back or that audiences “largely” never returned.

3. By mid‑2020s, box office is persistently below 2019 but still robust

   • Cinema United (formerly NATO) reported 2024 box office of about $8.6B, still roughly 25% below 2019’s $11.4B, and argued for longer theatrical windows to help recovery. (reuters.com)
   • A 2025 AP‑NORC poll notes that while box office remains more than 22% below pre‑pandemic levels, about two‑thirds of U.S. adults saw at least one movie in a theater in the past year, with 16% going monthly. (apnews.com)
     This supports a partial, not total, erosion of the theatrical habit.

4. Big event films show strong, repeated demand for theaters

   • 2023 blockbusters like Barbie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Oppenheimer collectively helped push domestic box office above $9B, with Barbie alone earning over $636M domestically. (forbes.com)
   • In 2025, films such as Wicked: For Good opened to $150M domestic and $226M worldwide in their first weekend, one of the biggest openings of the year and a record for Broadway adaptations, again filling thousands of theaters. (apnews.com)
     These repeated, large‑scale turnouts show that audiences do still come back in force for major releases.

5. Analysts attribute much of the gap to supply and competition, not to zero demand

   • Industry analysis notes that 2022–2023 shortfalls versus 2019 were heavily driven by fewer wide releases and shortened theatrical windows, not a fundamental refusal of audiences to attend. (cnbc.com)
   • Research from S&P Global in 2022 found frequent moviegoers had essentially returned to pre‑pandemic visit frequency, with the main drop coming from infrequent attendees. (spglobal.com)

Conclusion:

By late 2025, moviegoing has not fully returned to 2019 levels, and streaming has permanently shifted some demand. But domestic box office rebounded to around 75–80% of pre‑COVID revenue, with hundreds of millions of annual admissions and repeated blockbuster‑driven surges. That reality conflicts with a prediction that “no one” would go back and that audiences “largely” would not return. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.