And so what happens as we make these Social Security Medicare payments and we accrue and pay interest on the debt that we hold today. And we don't change the tax rates in this country. And this is what happens. So it's a runaway kind of debt scenario in the US, by definition, has to default at some point because you cannot tax every dollar of the economy at 100% at some point.View on YouTube
As of 30 November 2025, the United States federal government has not defaulted on its debt obligations in the usual sense of failing to pay interest or principal when due. There have been repeated debt-ceiling standoffs (e.g., in 2023), but these were resolved via legislation before any formal default occurred; ratings agencies have sometimes responded with downgrades or warnings, but not in response to an actual missed payment on Treasuries.
Friedberg’s prediction is explicitly about an eventual default under certain long‑run policy conditions (no entitlement cuts, continued servicing of existing debt plus interest, and roughly unchanged tax rates). Because he gave no time horizon and framed this as something that must happen "at some point" in the future if trends continue, the claim cannot yet be evaluated: the relevant future period is still unfolding, and no disconfirming default event (or decisive policy reversal that clearly removes the risk) has occurred.
Given that (1) the U.S. has not defaulted, and (2) the prediction concerns an unspecified future date, it is too early to judge whether the prediction will ultimately be right or wrong. Therefore the appropriate status is inconclusive (too early).