The prediction explicitly covered “over the next decade” from 2021, so the full forecast window runs to roughly 2031, while we are only about four years in as of late 2025. Empirically, although climate‑related disaster losses and federal aid have risen, they are still far below the specific scenario of four to five Hurricane Katrina–scale federal bailouts per year. Hurricane Katrina caused about $125 billion in damage and led to roughly $110.6 billion in federal spending on relief, recovery, and rebuilding.(en.wikipedia.org) NOAA’s billion‑dollar disaster data show that from 2020–2024 the U.S. averaged about $149 billion per year in total disaster damages—less than the damage from two Katrinas per year, let alone four or five—and that 2024’s disasters cost about $182.7 billion, with only a handful of individual events approaching Katrina‑scale losses.(climate.gov) Federal appropriations for disaster assistance across 2015–2024 totaled at least $448 billion, i.e., roughly $45 billion per year, again far below repeating Katrina‑level federal outlays multiple times annually.(files.gao.gov) On the other hand, there is clear evidence of growing economic strain and repricing in climate‑exposed real estate markets: major insurers have curtailed or stopped writing new homeowners policies in wildfire‑ and hurricane‑prone areas (e.g., State Farm and others in California), pushing many owners into state FAIR plans and highlighting a shift in how climate risk is being capitalized into property values.(kiplinger.com) Overall, the most concrete quantitative part of Friedberg’s prediction (4–5 Katrina‑scale federal bailouts per year) has not materialized so far, while the more qualitative part about a shift in economic value away from climate‑exposed real estate shows partial early evidence. Because the decade‑long horizon has not yet elapsed and future disaster losses and bailouts could still change the picture, the forecast is best classified as inconclusive (too early) rather than definitively right or wrong.