Scope of the prediction
Friedberg predicted that over the 1–2 years after April 2022:

• The U.S., Western Europe, and China would avoid major food crises (i.e., no systemic, humanitarian-level food emergency), while
• Sri Lanka and Northern/Eastern Africa would experience severe food-supply distress or crisis conditions.

1. U.S., Western Europe, China: higher prices, but no major food crisis

• FAO’s 2023 Statistical Yearbook reports that the prevalence of undernourishment in Northern America and Europe remained below 2.5% in 2020–2022, far lower than other regions, and that dietary energy supply in these regions was among the highest in the world. This indicates no broad-based food shortage or humanitarian food crisis, despite inflation. (fao-test.atmire.com)
• FAO’s 2023 Regional Overview for Europe and Central Asia notes that, although costs rose, the number of moderately or severely food-insecure people actually declined between 2021 and 2022, and regional undernourishment stayed below 2.5%, again inconsistent with a major food crisis. (fao.org)
• A summary of the 2022–2023 global food crises lists regions most affected by shortages and unrest—Sub-Saharan Africa, Iran, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Iraq—and does not include the U.S. or Western Europe as crisis epicenters; there, the impact was primarily high prices and cost-of-living pressure, not systemic inability to access staple food. (en.wikipedia.org)
• For China, the same global-crises overview notes that China entered 2022 with historically high grain stockpiles (over half of global wheat and rice reserves), aimed precisely at insulating itself from global shocks. (en.wikipedia.org) Reuters subsequently reports record grain harvests in 2023 and 2024—around 695–700+ million tons—underscoring that China maintained ample domestic grain supply through the period. (reuters.com)

Taken together, these data support the claim that the U.S., Western Europe, and China experienced significant food-price inflation and policy concern, but not a large-scale humanitarian food crisis in the 1–2 years after April 2022.

2. Sri Lanka: clear food crisis and severe distress

• A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment (Sept 2022) found 6.3 million Sri Lankans (about 30% of the population) facing moderate to severe acute food insecurity, warning that the situation was expected to deteriorate without urgent assistance. (wfp.org)
• DW reported in Sept 2022 that Sri Lanka was “on brink of food crisis”, with food-price inflation around 90%, about 30% of the population food-insecure, and one in four people regularly skipping meals. (dw.com)
• Subsequent analyses of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis describe 2022 as its worst financial crisis since independence, with default on foreign debt, inflation near 70%, and widespread shortages of essentials, leaving many households cutting food intake and suffering malnutrition into 2023. (en.wikipedia.org)

These are precisely the “mess”/crisis conditions Friedberg anticipated.

3. Northern & Eastern Africa: severe, large-scale food crises

• WHO and WFP describe the greater Horn of Africa (covering much of Eastern/Northeastern Africa) as facing one of the worst droughts in decades, compounded by conflict, COVID-19, and rising food prices partly driven by the war in Ukraine, leaving millions acutely hungry. (who.int)
• WHO situation reports for 2023 classify the Greater Horn of Africa as a Grade 3 emergency, with around 49–61 million people in IPC Phase 3+ (crisis or worse), including millions in IPC Phase 4 (emergency) and tens of thousands in IPC Phase 5 (catastrophe/famine) across countries like Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan. (who.int)
• Additional UN and FAO materials confirm that Africa had by far the highest regional hunger rates, with undernourishment near 20% and food crises particularly intense in conflict- and climate-affected states in East and North(-East) Africa. (en.wikipedia.org)

These conditions match the prediction that Northern and Eastern Africa would be “a mess”, i.e., suffer severe food-supply distress and crisis-level insecurity, especially as Ukraine-related fertilizer and grain shocks propagated.

Overall assessment

• In the Global North regions he named (U.S., Western Europe, China), the data show serious price inflation but no systemic, humanitarian food crisis during the 1–2 years after April 2022.
• In Sri Lanka and Northern/Eastern Africa, the same period saw exactly the kind of acute, widespread food insecurity and crisis conditions he described.

Given that his prediction was qualitative and regional (who would be in crisis vs. who would largely avoid it), the observed outcomes align closely with his claims. Hence the prediction is best judged as right.