1. Condition on the bill being enacted:

   • The House tax-and-spending package at issue is the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (H.R. 1), whose tax provisions were developed jointly by House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith and Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo; reporting at the time explicitly describes the tax section as a Smith–Crapo effort. (youngkim.house.gov)
   • That bill, with only negotiated modifications around the edges, passed the House on May 22, 2025, passed the Senate on July 1, 2025, and was signed into law by President Trump on July 4, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)
     → It is reasonable to treat Friedberg’s condition (the Smith/Crapo House tax bill being enacted “substantially as proposed”) as having been met.

2. Did the bill materially reduce the deficit?

   • Multiple analyses of the enacted One Big Beautiful Bill find that it increases, rather than reduces, deficits relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline:
     • CBO’s static score of the House-passed version estimated about $2.4 trillion higher cumulative deficits over 2025–2034. (nypost.com)
     • A later CBO letter analyzing the enacted law finds it will raise deficits by $4.1 trillion over 2025–2034 (including interest), taking the annual deficit from about $1.9T in 2025 to roughly $3.0T by 2034. (americanactionforum.org)
     • The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget similarly estimates post‑bill deficits over 2026–2035 will be about $22.7T, roughly $1T worse than prior projections. (reuters.com)
   • So the specific sub‑claim “the bill ultimately yields no real change in the annual deficit / will not materially reduce the deficit” is clearly supported by the best available evidence and is, at this point, effectively correct in direction.

3. Did the deficit rise to about $2.5T per year on a sustained basis?

   • Friedberg’s stronger claim is that the annual deficit would climb to roughly $2.5 trillion per year on a sustained basis in subsequent years.
   • As of late 2025, we do not yet observe such realized deficits:
     • CBO’s January 2025 baseline (before the bill) projected the deficit at $1.9T in 2025, rising gradually toward about $2.6–2.7T by 2034–2035. (edwardconard.com)
     • Post‑enactment analysis of the One Big Beautiful Bill suggests higher future deficits—around $3.0T in 2034, relative to the baseline. (americanactionforum.org)
   • Some commentary summarizing CBO’s outlook notes projected deficits of about $2.4T in 2033, $2.5T in 2034, and $2.7T in 2035, i.e., in the ballpark of his “$2.5T per year” description. (foxnews.com)
   • However, these are forecasts for the 2030s, not outcomes. As of November 30, 2025, only the 2025 fiscal year is underway, with the deficit still around the ~$1.8–1.9T level; the multi‑trillion‑dollar deficits Friedberg foresaw have not yet actually occurred.

4. Why the verdict is ‘inconclusive’:

   • We have strong evidence that:
     • The Smith/Crapo bill was enacted in substantially similar form, and
     • It does not materially reduce deficits; in fact, it worsens them.
   • But the key quantitative part of the prediction—sustained annual deficits “roughly $2.5T” going forward—is about fiscal outcomes in the early‑to‑mid 2030s, well beyond the current date. Only projections exist so far; they can change, and the actual realized deficits for those years are unknown.

Because the decisive part of the prediction concerns deficit levels more than a decade out, and those years have not yet occurred, the prediction cannot yet be said to have “come true” or failed, even though current forecasts broadly align with Friedberg’s warning. Hence the appropriate status as of November 30, 2025 is inconclusive (too early).