Available evidence shows no formal or alliance-level move in 2024 to push Turkey out of NATO or to negotiate its departure.

• Turkey remained a full NATO member throughout 2024. Fact‑checkers debunked viral claims that Turkey was leaving NATO, noting there were no such announcements from NATO, the Turkish government, or credible outlets, and no sign of withdrawal procedures under Article 13 being triggered.
• Within NATO, Turkey actually helped reduce prior friction by ratifying Sweden’s NATO accession in January 2024, removing a major obstacle to alliance expansion.
• Ankara continued to engage in normal alliance politics in 2024, including dealing with the succession to NATO’s secretary general; Turkey ultimately backed Mark Rutte’s candidacy, underscoring ongoing participation rather than institutional rupture.
• There were high‑profile rhetorical calls to expel Turkey from NATO in 2024. Notably, Dutch politician Geert Wilders—leader of the largest party after the 2023 Dutch elections and prime‑minister‑designate—publicly urged that “Turkey should be expelled from NATO” over its support for Hamas. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz likewise called on NATO to expel Turkey and instructed diplomats to lobby NATO members after President Erdoğan threatened possible intervention in Israel. A U.S. congressional candidate, Alex Balekian, also said he wanted a law to exclude Turkey from NATO. However, these were individual or third‑country statements; no NATO body or member government moved to open a formal process or collective negotiation about Turkey’s status, and NATO has no expulsion mechanism in any case.
• Similar “expel Turkey from NATO” rhetoric and even a U.S. House resolution had already appeared years earlier (e.g., Tulsi Gabbard’s 2020 resolution and assorted expert/official commentary), so 2024 was not clearly the first or qualitatively new “fracturing” moment on this issue.

Because 2024 did not see NATO or its members initiate a concrete, institutional challenge to Turkey’s membership—only recurring public calls of the kind seen in prior years—the prediction that this year would bring a significant political move or formal challenge to Turkey’s NATO status, marking an initial visible fracturing of the alliance, did not materialize.