On balance, evidence from 2022 does not support the claim that populist sentiment would generally swell in both the U.S. and globally over that year, even though there were important regional exceptions.

U.S.:

• Analyses of the 2022 U.S. midterms find that many high‑profile Trump‑aligned, election‑denying candidates underperformed or lost, especially in key swing‑state and election‑administration races. The Tony Blair Institute describes U.S. voters as “rejecting populism,” noting “resounding defeats to Trumpist candidates, especially in swing states and for state-level offices involved in election administration.” (institute.global)
• That pattern indicates that, while populist attitudes among parts of the electorate remained strong, their political influence did not clearly intensify in 2022 and in some crucial contests diminished, contradicting a forecast that the “voice of populism” in the U.S. would simply swell over the year.

Global picture:

• A major Cambridge/Bennett Institute study using data through late 2021 found that support for populist parties and agreement with populist attitudes had “collapsed” during the pandemic, with a marked technocratic shift and falling backing for populist leaders across many countries. (phys.org) There is no clear evidence of a broad, global reversal of this collapse in 2022.
• The Tony Blair Institute’s 2023 update, which incorporates 2022 outcomes, reports that the number of populist leaders in power worldwide continued to fall from a 2019 peak of 19 to just 11 at the start of 2023, the lowest level since 2003. Much of the decline came from Latin America, where a wave of more moderate, non‑populist centre‑left leaders replaced earlier populists. (institute.global) This is inconsistent with a claim that populism’s overall global prominence was swelling during 2022.

Important regional exceptions (where his intuition was partly borne out):

• In Europe, several elections did show rising or consolidating strength for populist parties. A 2022 Pew analysis notes that populist parties in Europe—especially right‑wing ones—have increased their vote shares in recent elections, highlighting strong showings in Italy and Sweden and large combined support for populist parties in France’s 2022 elections. (pewresearch.org)
• Italy elected Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a right‑wing populist party, as the leading force in the governing coalition in the September 2022 general election, marking the country’s most right‑wing government since World War II. (en.wikipedia.org) Sweden’s 2022 election likewise saw the Sweden Democrats, a radical‑right populist party, become the second‑largest party and a key supporter of the new right‑of‑centre government. (en.wikipedia.org) These cases confirm that in some European systems the populist “voice” remained loud or grew louder.

Overall assessment:

• The prediction was that populist, anti‑elitist politics would intensify and become more prominent, not fade, in both the U.S. and globally over 2022. Empirically, 2022 produced a mixed pattern: notable populist advances in parts of Europe, but a continued decline in the global number of populist leaders, a post‑pandemic fall in measured populist support, and clear electoral setbacks for Trump‑style populism in the United States. (institute.global)
• Because key elements of the forecast (especially for the U.S. and the global overall trend) did not materialize, even though some European developments fit the spirit of his claim, the best judgment is that this prediction is wrong rather than generally borne out.