Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
healthscience
A coronavirus (COVID‑19) vaccine will be produced within months of the virus being discovered (i.e., by sometime in 2021), which will be an unprecedented development speed.
much like we're about to produce a coronavirus vaccine in a matter of months after discovering the virus, um, which is unprecedented.View on YouTube
Explanation

Summary: Friedberg said we were “about to produce a coronavirus vaccine in a matter of months after discovering the virus,” and that this speed would be unprecedented. This is correct.

Key facts:

  1. Virus discovery / genome publication

    • SARS‑CoV‑2 was first identified in late 2019; Chinese authorities reported the cluster at the end of December 2019, and the viral genome sequence was shared publicly on January 11–12, 2020.
  2. First COVID‑19 vaccines authorized

    • The Pfizer‑BioNTech (BNT162b2) mRNA vaccine received its first emergency/conditional authorization in early December 2020 (e.g., UK on Dec 2, 2020; US FDA Emergency Use Authorization on Dec 11, 2020).
    • The Moderna mRNA‑1273 vaccine received US FDA Emergency Use Authorization on Dec 18, 2020.

    This is roughly 11–12 months from genome release/identification to the first approved/authorized vaccines.

  3. Unprecedented speed

    • Prior vaccine development timelines are typically many years to over a decade; e.g., the mumps vaccine (previous speed record) took about 4 years from virus isolation (1963) to licensure (1967). COVID‑19 vaccines went from genome publication (Jan 2020) to mass‑authorization by December 2020, which is widely described in scientific and public‑health literature as unprecedented in speed.

Assessment vs. the prediction:

  • “Produced within months after discovering the virus” – Yes: first vaccines were authorized and starting deployment about 11–12 months after genome identification, well within 2021 and indeed “within months,” not years.
  • “Unprecedented” speed – Yes: expert consensus is that the COVID‑19 vaccine development and authorization timeline was historically unprecedented compared to prior vaccines.

Therefore, the prediction is right.