Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
venturetechmarkets
For many growth-stage private tech companies that raised at multi‑billion‑dollar valuations in 2020–2021, the true market-clearing valuations over the subsequent correction period will be roughly 80–90% below their peak private valuations.
The problem was the real market clearing price was 80 to 90% down.View on YouTube
Explanation

Aggregated late‑stage venture data show that the typical reset for many growth‑stage startups was on the order Chamath described. Carta’s Q1 2023 data found median Series E+ pre‑money valuations down about 82% year‑over‑year, with Series D medians down ~70%, as the 2021 bubble unwound. (carta.com) Follow‑on data from Carta show median Series D valuations falling from roughly $1.07B at the 2021 peak to about $212M by Q1 2024—an ~80% decline. (carta.com) A number of marquee growth‑stage private tech companies that raised at multi‑billion valuations in 2020‑2021 later saw explicit down rounds or marks in the 80–90% range: Klarna from $45.6B to $6.7B (≈‑85%), Byju’s from $22B to around $1B (≈‑95%), PharmEasy raising with about a 90% cut, and quick‑commerce names like Gorillas and Gopuff taking 80–90% valuation haircuts, with Getir falling from $11.8B to $2.5B (≈‑79%). (en.wikipedia.org) While averages across all down rounds were smaller (often 20–40%), analyses explicitly note that elite 2020–2021 “unicorns” frequently suffered much steeper 80–90% markdowns. (fortune.com) Taken together, this supports Chamath’s claim that the true market‑clearing valuations for many growth‑stage private tech companies from the 2020–2021 cohort ended up roughly 80–90% below their peak private marks, even if not every company fell that far and some later recovered.