He's in jail by the time the election comes around, which I think also speaks very poorly to the risk that there is some clear links of corruption that come out.
Available reporting shows that Hunter Biden was not in jail at the time of the 2024 U.S. presidential election (November 5, 2024), nor afterward as of 2025. Instead:
- In June 2024, a federal jury in Delaware convicted Hunter Biden on three felony gun charges related to a 2018 firearm purchase. He faced potential prison time but remained free pending sentencing.
- In a separate federal tax case in California, he later reached a plea agreement and was sentenced in 2025 to probation and home confinement rather than incarceration in prison.
There is also no court finding or widely accepted evidentiary record of ‘clear links of corruption’ involving Hunter Biden and Joe Biden that became publicly established in a way comparable to proven criminal corruption cases. Multiple GOP-led investigations and impeachment inquiries targeted President Joe Biden’s alleged involvement, but they did not produce conclusive evidence of criminal corruption by the president, and no such charges were brought.
Because (1) Hunter Biden was not jailed by the 2024 election and (2) the predicted clear, publicly established corruption links did not materialize in the way forecast, Chamath’s prediction is wrong.