Chamath’s prediction was that prosecutors would take more time and then bring better-prepared charges tied to Hunter Biden’s foreign-lobbying/tax issues.

What happened:

• After the initial plea deal on two misdemeanor tax counts collapsed in July 2023, David Weiss was elevated to special counsel in August 2023 and kept investigating instead of ending the case. (en.wikipedia.org)
• On Dec. 7, 2023—about three months after the podcast—a federal grand jury in California returned a detailed nine‑count tax indictment alleging Hunter Biden ran a four‑year scheme (2016–2019) to avoid paying at least $1.4 million in federal taxes, including felony tax evasion and false returns. (justice.gov)
• In 2024, Hunter Biden ultimately was convicted on the Delaware gun charges and then pleaded guilty to the federal tax charges, before being pardoned by President Biden on Dec. 1, 2024. (reuters.com)
• U.S. District Judge Mark Scarsi in California rejected all of Hunter Biden’s motions to dismiss the tax case (including claims of political motivation and improper appointment/venue), leaving the indictment intact and finding no legal defect in the charges. (cbsnews.com) This strongly indicates the tax case was substantively and procedurally robust—i.e., “well prepared.”
• On the foreign‑lobbying side, prosecutors investigated possible violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act but Weiss later told Congress his team “couldn’t put together a sufficient case,” and no FARA or foreign‑lobbying charges were ever filed before Biden’s broad 2014–2024 pardon foreclosed further prosecutions. (foxnews.com)

So, while the “foreign lobbying” component of the prediction did not materialize, the core forecast—that prosecutors would, after taking more time, bring substantial, carefully built charges over Hunter Biden’s tax issues—was borne out by the subsequent nine‑count federal tax indictment, the court’s refusal to dismiss it, and his ultimate guilty plea. Overall, that makes the prediction effectively right.