• Condition mostly satisfied: Within days of the June 13, 2025 episode, Israel launched large airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, triggering a 12‑day Iran–Israel war. The U.S. then directly entered the conflict on June 22 with “Operation Midnight Hammer,” striking three Iranian nuclear facilities; Iran retaliated with missile attacks on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Contemporary coverage explicitly described this as the U.S. entering the Israel–Iran war, a major shooting conflict involving the U.S. and key allies against Iran. (en.wikipedia.org)
• What happened to oil prices: Before Israel’s initial strike, Brent and WTI were trading in the high‑$60s/around $70 per barrel. After Israel’s and then U.S. strikes, prices spiked but did not come close to doubling: intraday peaks were roughly $78–$81 for Brent and about $77 for WTI, and by June 23 spot levels were about $77 (Brent) and $74 (WTI). By June 25, after the ceasefire took hold, Brent had already fallen back below $68 and WTI to about $65. (cnbc.com)
• Longer‑run prices: Through the rest of 2025, benchmark prices trended in the $60s, with recent Reuters and JPMorgan commentary putting Brent around $62–63 and WTI around $58, and forecasting averages well below $70, not near $100+. (reuters.com)
• Counterfactual scenarios didn’t materialize: Analysts did note that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have driven prices to $100–150, but Iran never actually closed the strait or significantly disrupted flows, so those scenarios remained hypothetical. (en.wikipedia.org)

Given that a short but substantial war involving Iran, Israel, and direct U.S. strikes did occur in the near term, yet oil prices rose only ~10–15% rather than roughly doubling to the $100–$112 range Chamath described, the realized outcome contradicts his stated magnitude. On that basis, the prediction is wrong.