As of late 2025, the robotaxi market is still in an early, fast‑evolving phase. Waymo clearly leads U.S. fully driverless services, operating paid robotaxis without safety drivers in multiple cities (Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Miami, and expanding further) with a fleet over 1,500 vehicles and hundreds of thousands of weekly rides. (eprnews.com)

Tesla, meanwhile, only launched its Robotaxi service in June 2025 in Austin and later expanded to the Bay Area, still with safety monitors or drivers in the vehicles and facing regulatory hurdles in key states such as California, Arizona, and Nevada. Its footprint and autonomy level are materially behind Waymo, and it is still working toward removing safety drivers by the end of 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)

At the same time, the market is not limited to Waymo and Tesla: Amazon’s Zoox has launched a fully driverless, purpose‑built robotaxi service in Las Vegas and is preparing expansion to other cities, while several other firms are active or re‑entering related segments. (techcrunch.com) This competitive landscape means it is far too early to say Waymo and Tesla have definitively run away with the market.

On the consolidation side, there is substantial partnership and alliance activity (for example, the Rivian–Volkswagen software joint venture and a proposed Honda–Nissan–Mitsubishi merger that would reshape Japan’s auto sector), but these moves are driven by broader EV, software, and global-competition pressures, not clearly or primarily by Waymo/Tesla dominance in robotaxis. (en.wikipedia.org) There has not yet been the kind of widespread, clearly AV‑driven consolidation among traditional OEMs implied by the prediction.

Because (1) the robotaxi market is still nascent, with no stable long‑term structure, (2) Tesla has not yet emerged as a clear co‑leader alongside Waymo, and (3) the consolidation dynamics the prediction describes have not clearly materialized or been ruled out, there is not enough evidence less than a year later to judge the forecast as right or wrong. It is best classified as too early to call.