The prediction is explicitly conditional: Chamath says that if the U.S. secures roughly $600B in additional annual fiscal improvement from tariffs and the Fed cuts rates by 100 bps, then “every single risk dollar is going to run to America.” As of 30 November 2025, those preconditions have not occurred.

• Tariff‑revenue condition not met. Analyses of the 2025 tariff regime show U.S. customs duties reaching about $195B in FY 2025—up sharply from prior years but nowhere near a $600B incremental improvement. (finance.yahoo.com)
• Rate‑cut condition not met. The Fed held the funds rate at 4.25–4.50% through mid‑2025, then delivered two 25 bp cuts (September and October) to 3.75–4.00%, for a total easing of 50 bps, not 100 bps. (federalreserve.gov)
• Observed capital flows don’t match his described outcome either. In practice, 2025 has seen substantial rotations out of U.S. equities into Europe and emerging markets, and ex‑U.S. equity indexes have outperformed the U.S., the opposite of “forget Japan, forget Europe.” (reuters.com)

Because the specific policy mix he conditioned on (extra ~$600B in tariff revenue and a full 100 bp Fed cut) has not materialized, we cannot definitively evaluate whether his conditional claim about capital flows would have been right in that hypothetical scenario. Therefore, the correct classification is inconclusive rather than right or wrong.