ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:01:45Wrong
economygovernment
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 100 basis points within the next 60 days, then within that same 60-day window the U.S. fiscal outlook will be officially reforecast to show roughly $600 billion per year of improvement to the federal balance sheet (about $300 billion in additional annual revenue from tariffs plus about $300 billion in annual interest savings on the debt).
if we cut by 100 basis points, that's another $300 billion. Now in that case, that's not money that we get in, but it's money we don't have to spend. So if you add these two things together, we are in the next 60 days going to have to reforecast the American balance sheet where this is, or we're actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra 600 billion, 300 billion of incremental revenue and 300 billion of savings.View on YouTube
Explanation

Two key parts of Chamath’s scenario did not occur in reality:

  1. No 100 bps Fed cut within 60 days of June 13, 2025
    The federal funds rate was held at 4.25–4.50% at the May 7, June 18, and July 30, 2025 FOMC meetings; there were no rate changes in that span. The first cut of 2025 was a 25 bp move on September 17, 2025, well after his 60‑day window (which ended August 12, 2025). (en.wikipedia.org)
    Since the Fed never cut 100 basis points in that period (or even cut at all during those 60 days), the trigger condition of his prediction failed.

  2. No official $600 billion‑per‑year fiscal improvement reforecast in that window
    Chamath said that, given the rate cuts and tariff revenues, “in the next 60 days” the U.S. would “have to reforecast” the balance sheet to show about $600 billion per year in improvement ($300B more revenue from tariffs + $300B in annual interest savings).
    In reality, the main official fiscal baseline at that time was the CBO’s January 2025 Budget and Economic Outlook, released months before his June podcast; it already showed large, persistent deficits and rising debt, with no such $600B‑per‑year improvement. (americanactionforum.org)
    Later analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget actually projected larger cumulative deficits over the next decade than CBO’s January baseline, not a big improvement, and also noted that CBO skipped its usual mid‑year 2025 update and would not issue another full outlook until 2026. (reuters.com)
    OMB’s Mid‑Session Review in September 2025—already outside his 60‑day window—did present a somewhat rosier long‑term path, but still in the context of trillion‑dollar annual deficits and without any discrete, officially labeled “+$600B per year” improvement from the combination of tariffs and lower interest costs. (crfb.org)

Given that:

  • The Fed did not cut 100 bps (or at all) in the specified 60‑day period, and
  • There was no official reforecast during that window showing the roughly $600B per year improvement he described,

the real‑world outcome does not match the scenario Chamath confidently laid out. On practical, forecast‑evaluation grounds, this prediction is best classified as wrong, rather than “ambiguous”: he clearly anticipated both a rapid, large Fed cut and an associated fiscal re‑scoring, and neither materialized in the timeframe he specified.