Evidence shows Donald Trump’s Twitter account was reinstated far earlier than three years after his January 2021 ban.

• Trump was permanently banned from Twitter in January 2021 after the January 6 Capitol attack.
• After Elon Musk acquired Twitter in late October 2022, he ran a public poll on November 18–19, 2022 asking whether to reinstate Trump.
• Following that poll, Musk announced on November 19, 2022 that “Trump will be reinstated,” and Trump’s account was restored that day, roughly 22 months after the ban—not “after three years,” i.e., early 2024. (cnbc.com)

While Chamath was directionally correct that Twitter would eventually decide it was acceptable for Trump to return, the normalized prediction explicitly ties that decision to the three‑year mark (“roughly three years after” / “after three years”). In reality, the platform (under new ownership) reached that conclusion and reinstated him in late 2022, well before the predicted timeframe. Therefore, judged against the stated timing, the prediction is wrong.