There is currently no real-world implementation of the exact scenario Chamath described—i.e., a market where:

1. Fans can buy standalone, direct-to-consumer subscriptions specifically for one NBA player such as Steph Curry, and
2. Those offerings coexist with separate, purely team-branded DTC subscriptions (e.g., just the New York Knicks) with publicly reported, clearly separated subscriber counts.

What we do have as of 2025:

• The NBA sells League Pass and some Team Pass–style products for access to games, but these are not player-specific subscriptions and detailed per-team subscriber numbers are not public.
• Regional sports networks like MSG+ launched DTC products that include the Knicks, Rangers, etc., but again they are multi-team, regional offerings, not a "Knicks-only" globally scaled subscription with transparent paid-subscriber data.
• There is no evidence of a Steph Curry–only paid streaming subscription (or anything equivalent) with publicly reported multi-million global subscriber figures.

Because Chamath’s prediction is fundamentally about how many subscribers each type of offering (star player vs. team) would attract in a hypothetical market structure—and that structure does not yet exist in a measurable form—the prediction cannot be empirically checked. There are no reliable, disaggregated subscriber metrics for a Knicks-only DTC product, and no Steph-only DTC product to compare against.

Given the lack of a directly testable scenario and absence of relevant public data, the accuracy of the claim ("mid millions for Steph" vs. "a few hundred thousand for the Knicks") cannot be determined, even though enough time has passed.

Therefore the prediction’s status is best classified as ambiguous.