Chamath’s prediction about how the Supreme Court would handle the Texas SB8 case specifically essentially came true.

1. Declining to rule on the underlying abortion issue in the SB8 litigation.
   When SB8 took effect on September 1, 2021, the Supreme Court refused to block it and explicitly said its order was “not based on any conclusion about the constitutionality of Texas’s law” and did not resolve any substantive claims, allowing the law to go into effect on procedural grounds instead of ruling on abortion rights. (texastribune.org) In Whole Woman’s Health v. Jackson (Dec. 10, 2021), the Court again focused on who could be sued (standing and enforcement issues), permitted only a narrow suit to proceed, and still did not decide whether SB8 was constitutional, while leaving the law in force. (supreme.justia.com) To this day, there is no Supreme Court merits ruling on SB8’s constitutionality; the law was effectively sidelined, not struck down. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. Allowing the Texas law to stand as a Texas-only regime and shifting abortion to the states.
   SB8 functioned as a Texas‑only six‑week ban from September 2021 until it was overtaken by Texas’s broader post‑Roe bans (trigger law and pre‑Roe statutes), and the Supreme Court never enjoined SB8 itself. (congress.gov) In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (June 24, 2022), the Court then overruled Roe and Casey, held that the Constitution provides no right to abortion, and stated that authority to regulate abortion “lies with the 50 individual states” — a clear states’‑rights framing. (mondaq.com) As a result, Texas’s own bans now govern abortion almost entirely within Texas, consistent with the scenario Chamath described of the Court effectively letting Texas’s restrictive regime stand as a state matter.

While Dobbs did ultimately opine on abortion rights in a different case (Mississippi), in the Texas SB8 litigation itself the Court did exactly what he anticipated: it avoided ruling on the underlying abortion right and allowed Texas’s law to operate within Texas, as part of a broader move to return abortion regulation to the states.