Chamath @ 00:45:10Inconclusive
aiventureeconomy
Within roughly the next 15–20 years (by ~2044), there will be thousands of AI-enabled companies operating in relatively small markets that each achieve operating margins above 60%.
you will have many companies that have, you know, 60 plus percent operating margins, they'll be in much smaller markets and there'll be thousands and thousands and thousands of them.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s time horizon is “within roughly the next 15–20 years (by ~2044).” From a 2024 podcast date, 15–20 years out extends to 2039–2044. As of November 30, 2025, we are only about one year past the prediction date—far short of the specified window. Because the claim is about structural changes in business models and margins over a long period, it cannot yet be evaluated. There is no requirement in the quote that this transformation happen immediately; it explicitly allows up to ~2044 for the outcome. Therefore, it is too early to determine whether this prediction will be right or wrong, so the correct classification is inconclusive.