Chamath’s prediction is about the eventual mortality rate of the “bubble” startup cohort (roughly the 2020–2021 funding vintages), i.e., what percentage will ultimately fail over their lifetimes.

As of late 2025, that cohort is only ~3–5 years old. Typical analyses of startups suggest that 65–80% of startups fail within five years, and venture-backed companies and funds often take 7–10+ years to fully play out, with exits and write‑offs stretching over a decade.【2search12】 Carta- and PitchBook-based commentary on recent vintages explicitly notes that we are still "years out from seeing the performance data" for 2021–2022 funds, and that only a small minority of 2020–2021 funds have returned any capital to LPs yet—meaning many portfolio companies are still active (or at least not formally written off).【2search0】【2search1】

We do see strong signs of stress consistent with higher mortality: Carta data show that startup shutdowns have surged since 2022, with Q1 2024 recording the highest number of venture-backed closures this decade, and big percentage increases in closures at seed, Series A, and Series B stages.【2search10】【1search6】 However, these figures describe current flow of failures, not the final, lifetime failure percentage of the 2020–2021 funded cohort, and no credible source yet estimates that cohort’s ultimate mortality rate.

Because the relevant cohort has not matured and industry analysts themselves emphasize that final outcomes and performance for 2021–2022 vintages won’t be knowable for several more years,【2search0】【2search8】 there is not enough data yet to say whether the eventual failure rate will land around Chamath’s 50–60% range or higher/lower.

Therefore, the prediction’s accuracy is inconclusive (too early to tell) given the available evidence as of November 30, 2025.