Evidence strongly indicates that by late 2025 Apple had already exceeded $1 trillion in cumulative cash returned to shareholders (dividends + buybacks), so Chamath’s prediction came true.

Key points:

• A detailed April 9, 2025 analysis from Moods Investments states that since resuming dividends in 2012, Apple had returned $958 billion to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks) as of early April 2025. (moodsinvestments.ca)
• After that snapshot, Apple’s own Q2 FY2025 earnings call (covering the quarter ended March 29, 2025, reported May 1) disclosed that the company returned $29 billion to shareholders in Q2 alone ($25B in buybacks + $3.8B in dividends). (insidermonkey.com)
• In the subsequent Q3 FY2025 call (quarter ended June 28, 2025), Apple reported it returned over $27 billion to shareholders in Q3 ($21B in buybacks + $3.9B in dividends; the rest from other equity-settlement effects). (fool.com)
• Combining these: starting from $958B as of early April 2025, adding Q2 and Q3 returns (~$29B + >$27B ≈ $56B+) brings the cumulative total to about $1.014 trillion by the end of Q3 2025, i.e., well before the end of calendar 2025.
• Independent commentary is consistent with this math. A July 7, 2025 Motley Fool piece notes that since fiscal 2012 Apple had returned “nearly $1 trillion” to shareholders through dividends and buybacks as of Q2 2025, with an additional $100B buyback authorization just approved, implying the $1T mark would imminently be crossed. (fool.com)
• An October 4, 2025 analysis (citing Bloomberg estimates) goes further, stating that Apple has carried out over $1 trillion in share buybacks alone since 2015, not even counting dividends—so total cash distributions are clearly well above $1T by that point. (ainvest.com)

Taken together, these sources show that Apple’s cumulative shareholder distributions surpassed $1 trillion sometime between mid‑2025 and early Q4 2025, comfortably satisfying Chamath’s prediction “By 2025, Apple will have exceeded $1 trillion of cash distributions.”