Chamath said that starting in 2022 and "over the next several decades" the Davids—small businesses and smaller firms competing with dominant megacaps—would "do really well" relative to the Goliaths.

Evidence from 2022–2025 points the other way:

• Market performance has been led by mega‑caps, not smaller firms. The “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia) grew to about 29% of S&P 500 market cap in 2023 and massively outperformed the rest of the index: they gained ~71% that year while the other 493 stocks rose only ~6%.(finance.yahoo.com) The top 10 S&P 500 stocks’ weight jumped from 27% at end‑2023 to about 37% by mid‑2024, with the Magnificent Seven alone making up roughly 31% of the index, an unprecedented concentration.(cnbc.com) By 2025, estimates put the Magnificent Seven near 37% of S&P 500 market cap, far larger and more dominant than in 2021.(finance.yahoo.com)(linkedin.com) This is the opposite of a world where smaller competitors are gaining ground on megacaps.

• Small‑cap equities have underperformed large caps since 2022. Analysis using Russell 2000 (small caps) vs S&P 500 (large caps) shows that large caps have dramatically outpaced small caps over the last decade; one 2025 MarketWatch review notes that since 2013 large caps gained about 260% versus ~110% for small caps, and even in 2025 the S&P 500 was still ahead of small caps year‑to‑date.(marketwatch.com) A CFA Institute review in 2025 characterizes this as a prolonged cycle of small‑cap underperformance lasting roughly 12 years and still ongoing.(blogs.cfainstitute.org) Bank of America’s strategist (quoted elsewhere) similarly describes small caps as having lagged large caps every year since 2017. That means that an investor “on the side of the Davids” starting in 2022 has not done “really well” relative to backing the megacap incumbents.

• Most of the overall stock‑market gains have been concentrated in a few mega‑firms. Multiple analyses find that the Magnificent Seven contributed the majority—often well over half—of the S&P 500’s total return in 2023, and an unusually large share of global equity returns more broadly.(seekingalpha.com)(americancentury.com)(cpcadvisors.com)(washingtonpost.com) This concentration in a tiny number of dominant corporations again contradicts the idea that smaller competitors have been the main beneficiaries of the post‑2021 environment.

• Operating conditions for small businesses have been difficult rather than extraordinarily favorable. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, a key gauge of small‑business health, stayed below its 50‑year average of 98 for 34 consecutive months from January 2022 until November 2024, reflecting persistent pessimism tied to inflation, supply‑chain issues, and uncertainty.(cmegroup.com)(wisbusiness.com)(bankingjournal.aba.com)(chauffeurdriven.com) Even after a brief post‑election surge in late 2024, readings in 2025 slipped back near or below the long‑run average amid concerns about tariffs, policy uncertainty, weaker sales, and profit pressures—hardly an environment where small businesses are broadly “doing really well.”(bankingjournal.aba.com)(smallbiztrends.com)(reuters.com)

Chamath did attach a multi‑decade horizon, which we obviously cannot fully judge in 2025. However, he was explicit that “starting really next year” (i.e., 2022) being on the side of the Davids would perform very well. The first 3–4 years of that period have instead seen:

• small‑business sentiment and profitability under pressure, and
• financial and economic dominance by the very megacap Goliaths he expected to be outperformed.

Given that the prediction included a clear, near‑term inflection beginning in 2022, and early reality has moved in the opposite direction, the most reasonable assessment with current data is that this prediction has turned out wrong so far.