Evidence from 2024–2025 shows the U.S. economy continued to expand rather than being broadly described as in a recessionary environment.

• Macroeconomic data: Real U.S. GDP grew in every quarter of 2024, with full‑year real growth of about 2.8%, and Q3–Q4 2024 both positive. (bea.gov) The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has not declared any new recession after the brief COVID downturn that ended in April 2020, meaning it still classifies the period since May 2020 as an expansion. (nber.org) This undercuts the idea that conditions were widely seen as recessionary starting in or after September 2024.
• Media narrative: In early September 2024, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly said the U.S. economy remained solid and was on track for a soft landing, explicitly rejecting the view that the U.S. was in recession. (cnbc.com) The National Retail Federation’s chief economist similarly stated on September 6, 2024 that the U.S. economy was “clearly not in a recession” and likely to avoid one in late 2024. (nrf.com) Coverage from CNBC and other outlets through late 2024 framed the debate as recession fears vs. a probable soft landing, not as the country already being in recession. (cnbc.com)
• Corporate earnings commentary: FactSet‑based analysis of S&P 500 earnings calls for late 2023 and early 2024 found that far fewer large companies were even mentioning the word “recession” on their calls than in prior years, while use of the phrase “soft landing” hit multi‑year highs. (jamesinvestment.com) That is the opposite of Chamath’s expectation of “a lot of ink” around multiple major companies “basically in a recession.”
• Minority recession claims: A few opinion pieces and niche analyses argued that parts of the U.S. economy or certain income groups might already be in recession, but they acknowledge that aggregate data still show positive GDP growth and characterize this as a partial or hidden recession affecting specific segments, not the mainstream view of the overall U.S. economy. (forbes.com) These do not amount to major media widely describing the U.S. as in a recessionary environment in the sense implied by the prediction.

Given (1) continued broad economic growth with no officially dated recession, (2) a dominant soft‑landing narrative in major outlets, and (3) no widespread wave of coverage portraying multiple large companies as being “basically in recession,” Chamath’s predicted media and corporate‑commentary pattern did not materialize. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.