The prediction specified that in the 30–90 days after early February 2023, equity markets would experience a pronounced “pain trade” move up, similar to the strong, post‑Fed‑pivot rally of late‑2018/early‑2019.

In reality, major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat to slightly down over that window when measured from the time of the call:

• On Feb 3, 2023 (the last close before the Feb 4 episode), the S&P 500 closed at 4,179.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 12,200.82. (nasdaq.com)
• By May 5, 2023 (about 90 days later), the S&P 500 was 4,136.25 and the Nasdaq 12,235.41—roughly −1% for the S&P and +0.3% for the Nasdaq versus Feb 3. (wellergroupllc.com)

Looking at the month-by-month path confirms there was no large, sustained upward move akin to 2018–2019:

• The S&P 500 returned −2.5% in February, then +3.7% in March, +1.6% in April, and only +0.3% in May 2023; from Feb’s start through end‑May it effectively moved sideways around the 4,000–4,200 range rather than breaking notably higher. (statmuse.com)
• The Nasdaq Composite posted −1.0% in February, +6.76% in March, +0.66% in April, and +5.94% in May 2023; but from Feb 3 to early May it was still only marginally above its starting level, oscillating between roughly 11,500 and low‑12,000s. (statmuse.com)
• S&P Dow Jones’ own commentaries describe February as a decline and May as a small, range‑bound gain, not a sharp, capitulation‑style rally. (spglobal.com)

By contrast, the end‑2018/early‑2019 episode Chamath referenced featured a double‑digit rebound: the S&P 500 gained about 13% in Q1 2019, its best first quarter in over 20 years, and roughly 14% for the quarter overall, a clear, powerful rally off the prior lows. (indexologyblog.com) Nothing comparable in magnitude occurred in the 30–90 days after Feb 4, 2023; the large 2023 tech‑led surge really accelerated later (e.g., in June), outside his stated window. (statmuse.com)

Because broad equity markets did not move significantly higher over that specific 30–90 day period—and certainly not in a way that resembled the strong 2018–2019 head‑fake rally—the prediction that “the pain trade is to go up” in that window is best classified as wrong.