Chamath’s claim was that, by mid‑2021, Big Tech was already in the “August” of its supremacy and that in the following years their dominance would start to wane under regulatory, competitive, and technological pressure. Looking at 2021–2025, the opposite has happened on most tangible metrics of power.

1. Market and profit dominance have increased, not waned.
The “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla) expanded from about 20% of the S&P 500 a few years ago to roughly one‑third of the index by 2024, and about 37% by October 2025, an all‑time record in concentration. (gurufocus.com) They have driven a majority of S&P 500 gains in 2023–2024 and continue to produce outsized earnings growth relative to the rest of the market. (finance.yahoo.com) As of late 2025, several of these firms (Apple, Nvidia, and soon Alphabet) are in or near the $4T market‑cap club, and a small group of trillion‑dollar companies now accounts for about 41% of total S&P 500 value—much higher than a decade ago. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) This is hard to reconcile with the idea that their supremacy has started to ebb.

2. In key technologies (cloud and AI), Big Tech is more central than ever.
In cloud infrastructure, AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud control roughly 60–65% of global spending as of 2025, and that share has grown in the AI boom, with the “big three” capturing around two‑thirds of cloud spending. (indiekings.com) Hyperscalers—dominated by these same firms (plus Meta and Oracle)—account for more than 98% of AI infrastructure deployment, and are projected to spend well over $300–450 billion per year on data centers and AI hardware in the mid‑2020s, entrenching their control of compute and platforms. (gurufocus.com) Rather than opening space for smaller rivals, AI has largely reinforced Big Tech’s role as indispensable infrastructure providers.

3. Regulatory pressure has intensified, but has not yet materially reduced their power.
Regulators have clearly moved against Big Tech: the EU’s Digital Markets Act formally designated Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and ByteDance as “gatekeepers” in 2023, imposing conduct rules on 20+ core platform services as of 2024. (digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu) In the U.S., courts have found Google to hold illegal monopolies in both search and ad‑tech markets, the DOJ has filed a major antitrust suit against Apple, and the FTC has brought high‑profile cases against Amazon and Meta. (en.wikipedia.org) However, these actions have so far led mainly to behavioral remedies, ongoing appeals, and compliance obligations—not breakups or large structural loss of market share. The same firms still dominate search, mobile operating systems, social networking, app stores, digital advertising, and cloud.

4. Competition has emerged, but mostly around and through Big Tech rather than against it.
New or resurgent players like Nvidia, OpenAI, and various AI‑infrastructure challengers have grown rapidly, but Big Tech remains at the center of this ecosystem—as the primary cloud providers, chip customers, distribution channels, and investors. (investor.wedbush.com) The competitive landscape is more dynamic, yet it hasn’t translated into a broad-based erosion of the incumbents’ economic or platform power.

Overall, by late 2025 Big Tech faces more legal and political scrutiny, but its economic and technological dominance has, if anything, deepened. That makes the claim that we were already in the late‑summer phase of their supremacy in 2021—implying that their dominance would soon begin to ebb—look wrong based on the evidence to date.