Chamath frames this as something that will be figured out by crypto over the coming decades from 2021, not as a short‑term forecast. By November 2025 we are only about four years into that multi‑decade horizon, so it is too early to say definitively whether the prediction will ultimately prove right or wrong.

Empirically, there is clear progress in the direction he describes. Web3 social/creator platforms such as Lens Protocol and Farcaster give creators on‑chain identities, social graphs, and direct monetization via NFTs, pay‑to‑follow, and other smart‑contract mechanisms, partially shifting ownership and payments away from centralized intermediaries. (crowdfundinsider.com) The broader on‑chain creator economy (e.g., tokens and NFTs for creators, Zora/Base, etc.) is growing but remains small compared with the overall creator economy, which is still dominated by Web2 platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram and is projected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars mainly through traditional ad and sponsorship models rather than crypto rails. (tmcnet.com) At the same time, formal on‑chain reputation and credibility scoring systems are still active research areas and experimental deployments, not yet a mature, widely adopted standard for measuring and monetizing individual social value. (arxiv.org)

So as of late 2025, the direction of the prediction (crypto being used to help creators own distribution and link reputation to payments) is partially materializing, but the underlying problem is far from fully solved and the stated time window has not expired. Therefore the correct assessment today is that the prediction’s accuracy is still inconclusive.