Evidence since 2021 shows that a large and growing number of platform‑native creators (YouTubers, TikTokers, Instagram influencers, etc.) now use big social platforms mainly as top‑of‑funnel and then move fans to independent, direct‑to‑fan monetization channels that they control more directly—very close to Chamath’s New‑York‑Times‑to‑Substack analogy.

Key points:

1. Mass adoption of independent, direct‑to‑fan monetization by social creators
   Patreon—originally built for creators whose audiences live on platforms like YouTube—has paid out more than $10 billion to creators and now supports over 25 million paid memberships, indicating that very large numbers of creators are monetizing fans off the big discovery platforms rather than relying solely on YouTube/TikTok ads or brand deals. (axios.com)
   A 2023–24 overview of the creator economy notes Patreon, Substack, OnlyFans and similar tools as the “go‑to” infrastructure for independent monetization, explicitly framing social platforms as discovery and these services as the business back end for creators. (andelek.com)

2. Creators deliberately funnel audiences off major platforms to owned channels
   Linktree’s creator report shows strong growth in outbound traffic from social profiles to Substack (+157% YoY) and Patreon (+33% YoY), which is exactly creators using their social‑media reach to move followers into direct subscription or community products they control. (orebic.plus)
   Business coverage of the creator economy repeatedly describes this shift as creators trying to “own their audience” instead of being dependent on algorithmic feeds, encouraging email lists, paid communities, and standalone membership sites. (joanwestenberg.medium.com)

3. Large, platform‑native creators building their own paid products, apps, and services
   Uscreen—a company whose core business is helping influencers launch their own subscription apps and sites—has helped creators earn over $600 million in subscription revenue and just raised a $150 million growth round, with its CEO noting that “more and more creators are looking to leverage and own their land, rather than rent that land via all those Big Tech companies.” This is direct evidence of sizable creators moving from YouTube/TikTok into owned distribution and monetization channels. (businessinsider.com)
   Creator‑owned streaming service Nebula, launched by and for YouTubers, has grown to about 680,000 subscribers and is described as the “largest creator‑owned streaming platform,” explicitly positioned as a place where established YouTube creators offer premium content outside YouTube’s ecosystem. (en.wikipedia.org)
   Membership platforms like Fanfix and OnlyFans report top TikTokers and other social‑native influencers earning six‑ and seven‑figure incomes by sending followers from Instagram/Snap/TikTok into subscription clubs hosted on those services—again, social for audience‑building, independent platforms for direct monetization. (en.wikipedia.org)

4. Scale and composition meet Chamath’s "significant number" bar
   By mid‑2020s, we see:

   • Billions of dollars flowing through Patreon, Substack, OnlyFans, Fanfix and similar platforms from fans to creators whose initial fame came on YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, Twitch, etc. (axios.com)
   • Dedicated tooling and funding (e.g., Uscreen’s $150M) specifically to help influencers build their own apps/sites for direct fan relationships, which wouldn’t exist at that scale if this were a marginal behavior. (businessinsider.com)

While most big creators still keep a presence on major platforms for reach, Chamath’s claim wasn’t that they would abandon those platforms—it was that they would build on them, then spin out into their own direct, Substack‑style channels for distribution and monetization. By 2025, that pattern is widespread and economically meaningful among large social‑native creators.

Given the data on payouts, subscriber counts, creator‑owned platforms, and the explicit strategic shift toward audience ownership, Chamath’s prediction is best judged as right.