The prediction’s time horizon is explicitly “in a decade, 20‑somethings” from 2021—i.e., roughly 2031–2041. As of November 30, 2025, we’re only ~4.5 years in, so we’re far short of the lower bound of the 10–20 year window.

Substance-wise, the prediction is that a new generation will make it so that:

• Top creators (like Charli D’Amelio) can communicate with and monetize their audiences
• Without needing to go through intermediary platforms such as TikTok
• To the point where going through an intermediary “will not in the future make any sense” for such creators

Current reality (2025):

• Major influencers still rely heavily on intermediary social platforms (TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat, Twitch) as their primary distribution and discovery channels; these platforms continue to mediate access to followers via algorithms, terms of service, and moderation/policy controls.
• There are growing direct‑to‑fan and multi‑platform monetization tools (email lists, Discord communities, Substack, Patreon, OnlyFans, Fanhouse, membership platforms, creator CRMs, and even emerging decentralized social protocols like Farcaster or Lens), but none has yet displaced the large social platforms as the default way top creators reach and grow their audiences.
• The structural power of large intermediaries remains intact: they still control feed ranking, recommendation, access, and often monetization rails. Big creators supplement with direct channels; they have not made intermediary‑controlled access “obsolete” yet.

Because:

1. The core structural shift Chamath describes (intermediary‑controlled access no longer making sense for top creators) has not clearly happened yet, and
2. We are still well before the earliest end of his 10–20 year window (2031),

there is not enough elapsed time to say whether the prediction ultimately proves correct or incorrect. It remains inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right, wrong, or permanently ambiguous.