The prediction is explicitly about the next decade after October 25, 2024, i.e., roughly through October 2034. As of today (November 30, 2025), only a bit more than one year of that 10‑year window has passed, so we cannot yet know whether U.S. Treasury yields will spend a sustained period in the 6–8% range.

What we can observe so far is that the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield in late 2025 is around 4.0%: recent data show it at about 4.0–4.1% in November 2025, below both the historical long‑term average (~5.8%) and well below the 6–8% band Chamath mentioned.

• YCharts reports the 10‑year at 4.01% on November 25, 2025, with commentary that this is under the long‑term average of 5.82%. (ycharts.com)
• TradingEconomics/Fed data similarly place the November 2025 10‑year constant‑maturity yield around 4.0%. (tradingeconomics.com)
• Other market commentary through mid‑2025 also discusses 10‑year yields in the mid‑4% area, not near 6–8%. (pnccapitaladvisors.com)

However, the core claim is about where the fair/market‑clearing yield ends up “over the next decade,” and specifically whether it could be stably in the 6–8% range for a meaningful period. Since most of that decade is still in the future, we cannot yet label the prediction as right or wrong; it is simply too early to tell.