Chamath’s claim was that, given the then‑record level of the Buffett Indicator, U.S. equities were likely to become cheaper before they got more expensive.

On the episode date (Oct 25, 2024), they explicitly note that the market‑cap‑to‑GDP ‘Buffett Indicator’ had reached a new all‑time high, implying very stretched valuations.【0search2】 This aligns with outside reporting that by late 2024 the Buffett Indicator was near or above ~200%, its prior “danger” zone peak.【6news15】

Pricewise, the S&P 500 closed at 5,808.12 on 2024‑10‑25.【5view0】 After further gains into late 2024 and early 2025, a Trump‑driven tariff shock in early April 2025 triggered a sharp selloff: FRED data show the S&P 500 falling to 4,982.77 on 2025‑04‑08, clearly below the 5,808 level on the podcast date, and nearly 19% below its then record high.【5view0】2search3】1news14】 That is a material correction and unquestionably “cheaper” than on Oct 25, 2024.

Valuation metrics moved the same way. Coverage of the Buffett Indicator notes it surged past 200% in late 2024, then dropped from about 208% in mid‑February 2025 to roughly 180% by April 2025—a ~13.5% decline—due to that market pullback.【6search4】6news13】 That means broad equity valuations (market cap vs. GDP) were indeed lower than around the time of his comment.

After this correction, equities did in fact “get more expensive”: the S&P 500 recovered and went on to new record highs above 6,173 in June 2025 and later higher still in October 2025.【1search1】1news14】

Because U.S. equities first became meaningfully cheaper than at the time of his statement and then moved to substantially higher levels, the specific prediction that “equities are probably going to be cheaper before they’re going to get more expensive” describes what actually happened.