Trump did win the November 2024 U.S. presidential election and took office in January 2025, satisfying the prediction’s initial condition. His administration has implemented notable parts of an economic program, including broad new tariffs and a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve / digital‑asset stockpile, which are relevant to inflation and to crypto markets. (en.wikipedia.org)

Inflation so far (up to late 2025):

• Headline CPI inflation has generally run around 2.3–3.0% year‑over‑year in 2025, slightly below or similar to 2024’s average (~3%). A monthly table of 12‑month CPI changes shows 2024 annual inflation at 2.95% and 2025 readings in the low‑to‑mid‑2% range through at least August. (in2013dollars.com)
• July 2025 CPI was 2.7% year‑over‑year, with core CPI at 3.1%, a modest uptick attributed in part to Trump’s tariffs, but not a clear break to significantly higher inflation versus the prior year. (reuters.com)
• Consensus forecasts from the National Association for Business Economics see inflation easing slightly from about 2.9% at end‑2025 to 2.6% in 2026, suggesting no confirmed sustained move to higher medium‑term inflation yet. Market‑based 5‑year inflation expectations have ticked up somewhat (to around the mid‑3% range), but these are expectations, not realized medium‑term outcomes. (reuters.com)

Because “medium term” in the user’s normalization is roughly 1–3 years after inauguration, we are less than one full year into that window (late 2025 vs. a January 2025 start). Realized inflation so far has not clearly moved higher than the pre‑Trump baseline, and we do not yet have data for the bulk of the 1–3‑year period. So the core claim that U.S. inflation will rise in the medium term under Trump’s program cannot yet be definitively judged.

Bitcoin and gold as hedges:

• Gold has strongly appreciated during Trump’s new term. The average gold price in 2024 was about $2,388/oz; in 2025 the average is over $3,400/oz with prices recently above $4,000/oz, implying roughly a 60% gain year‑to‑date and multiple new all‑time highs. Analysts and news coverage frequently tie this rally to safe‑haven demand amid tariff‑driven uncertainty, concerns over U.S. debt, and inflation / policy risks—consistent with gold trading as an "uncertainty/inflation hedge." (statmuse.com)
• Bitcoin has also appreciated sharply relative to pre‑election levels. It rose from about $44,000 on Jan 1, 2024 to around $94,000 on Jan 1, 2025, and then to record highs above $120,000 in 2025 before pulling back to the high‑$80Ks to ~$90K range. This run‑up overlapped with Trump’s election victory and subsequent crypto‑friendly measures, including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which commentators describe as a major factor in the 2024–2025 surge. (in2013dollars.com)

These asset‑price moves fit Chamath’s view that Bitcoin and gold would “trade that way” as hedges in a Trump scenario, but the explicit prediction you supplied is about inflation rising in the medium term and therefore those hedges performing.

Given that:

• The conditional event (Trump winning and implementing a program) has happened.
• Bitcoin and gold have indeed appreciated strongly in a way consistent with hedge behavior.
• But the key macro piece—a clear, sustained increase in U.S. inflation in the 1–3 years after inauguration—cannot yet be confirmed, and the available data to date do not show a decisive move higher versus the pre‑Trump period.

The fairest overall assessment as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than clearly right or wrong.