Key parts of Chamath’s prediction have, on balance, played out as he described, though some language (like “overwhelmingly”) was stronger than what most models showed at the time.

1. “Overwhelmingly to a Trump win” / markets correctly pricing it in

   • Donald Trump did win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, 312–226 in the Electoral College and by about 1.5 percentage points in the popular vote. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • On October 25, 2024, major prediction markets like Polymarket priced Trump around the low‑to‑mid 60s in win probability (≈63–66%), briefly spiking to 99% only because a single whale trade cleared the order book. (xbo.com)
   • A side market on Polymarket tracking Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin forecast resolved that Trump’s model odds on October 25 did not exceed 55%, implying a more modest edge there. (polymarket.com)
   • National polling averages in late October still showed a very close race, often with a slight Harris popular‑vote lead. (en.wikipedia.org)
     Assessment: Markets were indeed leaning Trump and that “tilt” proved directionally correct, but “overwhelmingly” overstates how lopsided the probabilities actually were. This makes the framing somewhat exaggerated but not flatly wrong.

2. Conditional macro/market call if Trump won
   Chamath’s concrete claims were that, if Trump won by a solid margin, in the short term: (a) gold would go up more, (b) Bitcoin would go up, (c) equity prices would move higher, and (d) long‑term U.S. rates would move higher.

   • Gold: In October 2024, gold closed the month around $2,744/oz; it dipped slightly in November–December (closing about $2,654 and $2,624) but then moved sharply higher through 2025, with monthly closes above $3,100 by March and around $3,29x–3,30x by mid‑year, and later records above $4,300 by October 2025. (statmuse.com) Over the months following Trump’s win, the dominant trend was strongly upward, consistent with his “gold’s going to go up more” claim, even though there was a brief post‑election wobble.
   • Bitcoin: Bitcoin closed October 2024 at about $70,215. In November—immediately following the November 5 election—it rallied to a ~$96,449 month‑end close (+37% MoM), remained in the low–mid $90Ks in December, and moved above $100K in January 2025, before eventually hitting new all‑time highs around $125K in October 2025. (statmuse.com) This clearly fits “Bitcoin will probably go up.”
   • Equities: The S&P 500 closed October 2024 at about 5,705 and then rose to ~6,032 by end‑November and ~5,882 at end‑December, leaving it clearly above pre‑election levels. (statmuse.com) U.S. equities continued to advance in 2025, with the S&P 500 above 6,700 by late November 2025. (apnews.com) This matches his expectation that “higher equity prices” would reflect short‑term economic upside.
   • Long‑term U.S. rates: The 10‑year Treasury yield was around 4.10–4.20% in early/late October 2024, then rose to about 4.36% on November 1 and 4.39% on December 1, later peaking near 4.63% in January 2025 before easing a bit. (value-trades.com) That pattern—yields moving noticeably higher in the months after the election—is in line with his call that “it’ll also push out long term rates.”

Overall:
Trump did win, and in the months after his victory, gold, Bitcoin, major U.S. equity indices, and long‑term Treasury yields all moved higher from late‑October/early‑November 2024 levels, as Chamath predicted. The only real quibble is his rhetorical choice of “overwhelmingly” to describe pre‑election odds, which were more like a solid but not lopsided Trump edge. Given that the core directional and conditional parts of the forecast came true, this prediction is best classified as right, with some overstatement in how he described the degree of market confidence before the vote.