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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:04:59Wrong
economypolitics
Around the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle (roughly 2024), the U.S. economy will likely still be in or just emerging from a recession, characterized by significant economic damage and high unemployment.
the setup is really interesting for 2024 because it's probably going to be the case that we're in the middle of a recession going into that election cycle. Maybe we'll be sort of like getting ourselves out of it, but there'll be a lot of economic damage, high unemployment.View on YouTube
Explanation

Official data show the U.S. was not in a recession during 2024 and around the 2024 election cycle. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s recession indicators remain at zero for all quarters of 2023–2024, indicating no recession was dated in that period. (ycharts.com)

Instead, real GDP grew by about 2.8% in 2024, continuing the post‑2020 expansion rather than contracting. (bea.gov) Labor market data also contradict the prediction of “high unemployment”: the national unemployment rate averaged about 4.0% in 2024 and was 4.1% in October 2024, only modestly above 2023 levels and low by historical recession standards. (bls.gov)

While there was some "economic damage" from earlier inflation and high interest rates, the specific forecast that the U.S. would be in the middle of a recession (or just barely emerging from one) with high unemployment going into the 2024 election cycle did not occur. On the core elements of the prediction—recessionary conditions and high unemployment around the 2024 election—the prediction was wrong.