Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
politicsgovernment
There is a high likelihood that Hunter Biden will be convicted and incarcerated before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, potentially with additional evidence of corruption emerging that implicates Joe Biden.
I think there's a very good chance that Biden's son... He's in jail by the time the election comes around, which I think also speaks very poorly to the risk that there is some clear links of corruption that come out.
Explanation

Hunter Biden was convicted on three federal gun charges in Delaware on June 11, 2024, and later pleaded guilty to nine federal tax charges on September 5, 2024, both before the November 5, 2024 election.(cnbc.com) However, he was not incarcerated before the election: his gun‑case sentencing was postponed to December 4, 2024, and his tax‑case sentencing was set for December 16, 2024, meaning he remained free pending sentencing through Election Day.(apnews.com) President Joe Biden then issued a full pardon to Hunter on December 1, 2024, further confirming there was no pre‑election imprisonment.(people.com)

On the corruption aspect, Republican‑led investigations and an impeachment inquiry produced allegations that Joe Biden abused his office to benefit his family, but multiple independent reviews and investigative reporting repeatedly noted that concrete evidence of criminal bribery or corruption by Joe Biden himself was not established.(theguardian.com) A key FBI informant whose claims had underpinned some of the most serious bribery allegations later pleaded guilty to fabricating that scheme, further undercutting the idea that clear, verified evidence emerged tying Joe Biden to corrupt payments.(apnews.com)

Because Hunter Biden was not jailed before the 2024 election and no broadly accepted, substantiated proof of Joe Biden’s personal criminal corruption surfaced, the combined prediction that he would be convicted and incarcerated before the election with clear corruption links to Joe Biden emerging did not come true overall.