Chamath makes a time‑to‑solve prediction: that going from ~98–99% to near‑perfect reliability in complex AI systems (like self‑driving or high‑stakes inference) will take “decades”. In the episode transcript he explicitly says these “last 100 or 200 basis points literally takes decades,” in the context of self‑driving and brittle AI models. (podscripts.co)

As of November 2025:

• Fully general SAE Level 5 self‑driving (any road, any conditions, no human fallback) still has not been achieved or widely deployed. Major players like Waymo and Cruise remain at limited geofenced robotaxi services with notable safety and regulatory problems (e.g., Cruise’s California permits suspended and its driverless operations paused after a serious pedestrian‑dragging incident, then later GM effectively exiting the robotaxi business). (cnbc.com)
• At the same time, systems have improved sharply: Waymo reports tens of millions of driverless miles with substantially fewer insurance claims and injury crashes than human drivers, showing rapid progress toward that high‑reliability regime rather than stagnation. (nbcbayarea.com)

However, none of this tells us how long it will ultimately take to close the final 1–2 percentage points of reliability. Only about three years have elapsed since the prediction in December 2022; “decades” implies a horizon on the order of 20+ years. We cannot yet know whether the remaining progress will in fact stretch over multiple decades or be compressed into a shorter period.

Because the forecast is specifically about a long future time scale and we are still near the beginning of that period, the correctness of the claim cannot yet be determined.

So the appropriate classification is: it’s too early to tell → inconclusive.