Chamath predicted that over the coming years many traditional enterprise SaaS apps would be incrementally replaced by “models as a service” (MaaS), leading to a broad shift from SaaS to MaaS.

What we see by late 2025:

1. SaaS is still large and growing, not shrinking.

   • Global SaaS revenue is still rising fast: estimates put the 2024 market around $250–400B, with forecasts to exceed $1T by the early 2030s, and SaaS adoption already above 70% of organizations. These reports describe continued expansion, not a broad replacement of SaaS as a model. (marketdataforecast.com)

2. MaaS / AI-model APIs have clearly emerged as a category.

   • Major cloud vendors now explicitly market “Model(s) as a Service” offerings, providing pre‑trained ML and LLM models via APIs (e.g., Microsoft Azure’s MaaS description, Cassava’s model‑as‑a‑service, Red Hat’s “Models‑as‑a‑Service” in OpenShift AI). (azure.microsoft.com)
   • This matches the direction Chamath described: single‑use/specialized models accessed as cloud services.

3. AI is pressuring traditional SaaS, but evidence of wholesale replacement is isolated.

   • Consulting analysis (AlixPartners) finds over 100 public mid‑market software firms under pressure as generative AI lets lean, AI‑native entrants and big incumbents challenge traditional SaaS models; growth and retention are weakening for some of these companies. (businessinsider.com)
   • Some high‑profile anecdotes (e.g., Klarna reportedly decommissioning ~1,200 SaaS tools, including Salesforce, in favor of an internal AI knowledge platform) show that individual enterprises can replace many SaaS apps with AI‑centric systems. (medium.com)
   • However, these are still case studies, not clear evidence of a broad market‑wide shift from SaaS to MaaS.

4. In practice, AI/MaaS often augments SaaS rather than replacing it.

   • Many SaaS vendors are embedding AI features into their existing products (e.g., HubSpot adding AI‑generated emails, chatbots, predictive analytics) while remaining fundamentally SaaS platforms. (forbes.com)
   • AI model providers (OpenAI, etc.) are mostly used as infrastructure by other apps, though some moves toward direct SaaS competition are emerging; analysis frames this as a new competitive threat, not yet a completed replacement. (businessinsider.com)

Why the verdict is “inconclusive”:

• Chamath’s claim has two parts:

  1. Directional trend: models as a service will become a key way enterprises consume functionality.
  2. Outcome framing: SaaS will be replaced over time, with a broad shift from SaaS to MaaS.

• By late 2025, part (1) looks directionally supported: MaaS/AIaaS is clearly a recognized, fast‑growing pattern and is starting to power many workflows.

• But for part (2), macro data still shows a robustly growing SaaS market, with only early signs of displacement and a few headline examples of companies ripping out large numbers of SaaS tools. There’s no strong, quantitative evidence yet that many traditional enterprise SaaS applications have already been replaced or that SaaS as a whole is in secular decline.

• Because Chamath’s timeframe—“over the coming years” and “over time”—is vague and plausibly extends well beyond 2025, we cannot yet say whether a broad structural shift from SaaS to MaaS will ultimately occur.

Therefore, as of November 2025, the prediction is directionally plausible but not clearly fulfilled or falsified, so the fairest label is "inconclusive (too early)".