At the time of the podcast (November 17, 2023), a CNN/UNH poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters had Joe Biden at about 65% and Dean Phillips at 10%, and reported that 41% had not heard he was running and roughly three-quarters did not know enough about him to hold an opinion, indicating low initial support and visibility. (keyt.com) Over the following month, American Research Group’s tracking of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters showed Phillips rising from 17% on December 20 to 21%, 26%, 28%, and then 32% by January 20, while Biden remained in the mid‑50s, a clear upward trend. (americanresearchgroup.com) Other pollsters in January also found him in the mid‑single to mid‑teens (for example, 7–10% in CNN/UNH, 16% in Emerson), confirming that his support was meaningfully higher than at launch even if estimates differed. (en.wikipedia.org) Reporting just before the primary noted that some surveys had Phillips around 28% to Biden’s 58% and described him as having found “some momentum” in the state. (startribune.com) In the January 23, 2024 New Hampshire Democratic primary itself, Phillips ultimately received about 19–20% of the vote, a distant second to Biden’s write‑in total of about 64% but roughly double his mid‑November polling and far above his initial, near‑unknown status. (en.wikipedia.org) Nationally, he never rose beyond low single digits and soon ended his campaign after weak results elsewhere, so he did not broadly transform the race. (en.wikipedia.org) However, Chamath’s specific claim was that Phillips’ numbers, particularly in New Hampshire, would improve significantly as more voters saw him. Given the substantial polling gains there and a final vote share around 20% from a very low starting point, that prediction about his New Hampshire polling trajectory is supported by the outcomes.