I think he's going to buy Twitter. I think he's going to clean it up. I think he's probably going to generate something like A2X on this... that basically, you know, puts that asset worth at around $100 billion... And then here's the masterstroke... I think he's going to donate it into a foundation and a trust... then if he if he were to donate it into a foundation, he'd get $100 billion credit that he could use, you know, to offset the gains when SpaceX or Starlink go public.View on YouTube
Breaking the prediction into its key components:
-
"He's going to buy Twitter." – Correct (this part came true)
- Elon Musk completed the acquisition of Twitter on October 27, 2022 for about $44 billion and took the company private.
-
"He's going to clean it up and improve the platform." – Not supported by outcomes
This is subjective, but most concrete indicators point the other way:- Massive staff cuts and rapid policy shifts led to site instability, moderation issues, and advertiser pullback; major brands paused or reduced ad spending amid concerns about content moderation and brand safety.
- Hate speech and misinformation complaints increased after policy and staffing changes; civil society groups and many users publicly argued the platform had degraded, not been "cleaned up."
Because this component is value‑laden, it can’t be scored definitively, but it clearly does not have broad empirical support.
-
"He'll generate about a 2x return and Twitter will be worth ~$100B in ~6–7 years." – Not on track / contradicted by available data
- Musk’s acquisition price implied a valuation around $44B.
- After the deal, widespread reporting in 2023–2024 indicated that internal marks and secondary-market transactions valued the company (renamed X Corp.) at far below the purchase price, not above it. For example, Musk and X have reportedly acknowledged valuations around $20B or lower in some internal/share-based contexts, implying a large unrealized loss rather than any gain.
- As of late 2025, X is still private and there is no market evidence of anything close to a $100B valuation, let alone a 2x from the acquisition price.
While the original timeline (6–7 years) runs out around 2028–2029, the prediction was quite specific that Musk would roughly double his money, and the actual trajectory has gone in the opposite direction for several years. Given the enormous gap between current indications and the predicted outcome, this sub‑prediction is strongly contradicted by current evidence.
-
"He will donate Twitter into a foundation or trust to get a ≈$100B tax credit for future SpaceX/Starlink gains." – Did not happen
- There is no record that Musk has donated Twitter/X into a charitable foundation or trust in a way that would give him a ~$100B charitable deduction or similar tax credit.
- Twitter’s corporate structure was reorganized into X Corp. and related entities under his control, but not transferred to a philanthropic foundation; ownership remains effectively in Musk’s and associated entities’ hands.
Putting it together:
- The first, simplest part (he will buy Twitter) was right.
- The core of the prediction, however, was that he would (a) substantially improve/"clean up" the platform, (b) roughly double his investment to a $100B valuation in a 6–7 year frame, and (c) then donate it to a foundation to obtain about a $100B tax credit.
- As of November 30, 2025: the platform’s quality is widely viewed as worse, not better; valuations and financial indicators point to a large loss, not a 2x gain; and no donation or tax-credit strategy of the described type has occurred.
Given that most of the specific, falsifiable components are clearly contradicted by current facts, the overall prediction is best scored as "wrong", even though the narrow sub‑prediction that Musk would complete the Twitter acquisition was correct.