Available data through late 2025 show no broad NYC real-estate “crash and burn” so far. Residential median sale prices across NYC were about 10% higher year‑over‑year in Q1 2025, indicating continued strength rather than a collapse. (qns.com) Analyses of the NYC housing market in mid‑ to late‑2025 describe prices as generally stable or modestly rising, with only slight projected easing and explicitly characterizing a major crash as unlikely. (noradarealestate.com) Some subsegments (e.g., certain single‑family homes, offices) have seen value declines, but the changes reported are on the order of a few percent, not a systemic crash across “New York real estate.” (bloomberg.com) However, Chamath framed this as happening in the “coming years”, and only about five months have elapsed between the June 28, 2025 prediction and the November 30, 2025 evaluation date. That horizon is too long relative to the time passed to definitively say the prediction has failed, so the outcome is too early to judge.