Several key parts of Chamath’s scenario cannot be directly tested with available post‑election data, even though the 2024 election has already occurred.

1. Size of the crypto‑holder population (~50M)
   Surveys before the election estimated that roughly 15–20% of U.S. adults had invested in or used cryptocurrency. Pew Research in 2024 found 17% of American adults had ever used or invested in crypto, which corresponds to tens of millions of people, broadly consistent with a 40–50M range. (washingtonpost.com) Industry and advocacy groups later cited figures around 50–52M U.S. crypto owners (about 15% of adults), again roughly matching his order‑of‑magnitude claim. (standwithcrypto.org) So his base population estimate is plausible, but that alone is not the core of the prediction.

2. Turnout among crypto holders ("80% show up")
   Pre‑election polling by Consensys/HarrisX and related reporting suggested extremely high intended turnout among crypto owners: around 92% said they planned to vote. (elections.harrisx.com) However, official election statistics and high‑quality post‑election studies (e.g., Pew’s validated voter work) do not report actual turnout rates specifically for crypto owners. No validated‑voter dataset I could find includes cryptocurrency ownership as a category. As a result, we cannot verify whether realized turnout among crypto holders was actually on the order of 80%.

3. Direction of the vote ("they're all going to vote for President Trump")
   Multiple pre‑election polls did find that crypto owners leaned toward Trump relative to non‑owners:

• A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll in August 2024 showed Trump leading Harris 50–38 among likely voters who own crypto, while Harris led 53–41 among non‑owners. (fdu.edu)
• A Paradigm‑linked survey in March 2024 found 48% of crypto holders planned to vote for Trump vs. 39% for Biden, a 9‑point edge. (cryptoslate.com)
  These results support the idea that crypto owners disproportionately favored Trump, but they do not show anything close to “all” or an overwhelming supermajority; they suggest a modest but meaningful lean, not unanimity.

4. Did this bloc swing the election by ~5 percentage points?
   The actual national popular‑vote margin in 2024 was about Trump 49.8% vs. Harris 48.3%, a Republican lead of roughly 1.5 percentage points, with Trump winning 312–226 in the Electoral College. (en.wikipedia.org) Some post‑election counterfactual analyses by Pew and others indicate that even if all eligible Americans had voted, Trump’s margin would likely have increased only modestly, not by anything like five full percentage points. (politico.com)

Crucially, though, no available dataset isolates the marginal effect of crypto holders on that margin. We do not have a credible estimate of what Trump’s vote share would have been in the absence of crypto owners, nor a validated measure of how many of them actually voted and for whom. Without that counterfactual, we can’t say whether they swung the race by 0.5 points, 2 points, 5 points, or not at all.

5. Overall assessment

• The existence and size of a substantial crypto‑interested electorate is broadly in line with his framing. (digitalchamber.org)
• The tendency of crypto owners to lean toward Trump is supported by multiple polls, though at single‑digit or low‑double‑digit margins rather than an overwhelming “all for Trump.” (fdu.edu)
• But the central, quantifiable pieces of the prediction — 80% turnout among ~50M holders and a resulting swing of up to 500 basis points in the election outcome — cannot be confirmed or refuted with current evidence, because those metrics are not directly observed in any validated post‑election data.

Because the core causal and quantitative claims about turnout and a 5‑point swing can’t be empirically tested with existing public data, the prediction cannot be cleanly labeled as right or wrong. It remains ambiguous rather than demonstrably fulfilled or refuted.