The prediction explicitly covers a 50‑year window (about 2022–2072), so as of November 2025 only ~3 years have passed—far too early to determine whether the Chinese state will become “much, much more actively involved” over the full period.

Early evidence does show Beijing increasing its role in supporting an aging society: the State Council has released a comprehensive “silver economy” strategy with 26 guidelines to reshape healthcare, finance, and technology around older adults; the sector is targeted to grow from about 7 trillion yuan to 30 trillion yuan by 2035, implying substantial policy and fiscal support. (time.com) The government is also stepping up direct elderly‑care initiatives—expanding home‑based and institutional care, subsidizing meal programs and in‑home care beds, and planning broader measures to protect seniors’ rights and participation. (english.www.gov.cn) In parallel, officials have signaled plans to significantly expand and strengthen the National Social Security Fund to cope with hundreds of millions of upcoming retirements, underscoring a more interventionist approach to pensions and long‑term support. (reuters.com) Recent policies also include large and rapidly growing central funding for pension and welfare services and new tax incentives for elder‑care providers. (english.scio.gov.cn)

These developments are directionally consistent with Chamath’s forecast of greater state involvement, but they represent only the initial phase of a 50‑year horizon. We cannot yet know whether this will amount to being “much, much more actively involved” over the entire period compared with 2022, so the prediction’s ultimate accuracy remains inconclusive at this time.