Key elements of Chamath’s prediction have largely played out:

1. Consolidation as de‑facto “ruler for life” in 2022
   In October 2022, at the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping secured a precedent‑breaking third term as party leader, stacked the Politburo Standing Committee with loyalists, and left no clear successor, leading major outlets and analysts to describe him as China’s most powerful leader since Mao and a potential ruler for life.(washingtonpost.com) Subsequent scholarship and events have routinely referred to Xi as China’s “ruler for life,” including works by Willy Lam and academic events explicitly using that phrase.(catalog.k8s.libraries.psu.edu) This aligns closely with Chamath’s claim that 2022 would be the first year he is “essentially really ruler for life.”

2. 2022 as a year of major political “winning”
   The same 20th Party Congress and ensuing leadership reshuffle were widely viewed as a huge personal victory for Xi, cementing his dominance over the party and state.(washingtonpost.com) While the label “biggest political winner globally” is subjective—others might argue for figures like Volodymyr Zelensky in 2022—it is not contradicted by events; if anything, much commentary supports the view that Xi was one of the year’s principal political winners due to his unprecedented consolidation of power.

3. Expanded power playing out domestically and internationally after 2022
   After the podcast:

   • In March 2023, Xi was confirmed for a third term as China’s president, reinforcing his consolidated authority.(outlookindia.com)
   • Domestically, analyses note continued centralization around Xi, extensive anti‑corruption and faction‑purging campaigns, and tighter ideological and surveillance control, all framed around his personal rule.(abc.net.au)
   • Internationally, Xi has advanced initiatives like the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative, deepened ties with Russia and the Global South, and pursued a more assertive foreign policy, using China’s influence in events such as the Iran–Saudi rapprochement and continued military and diplomatic pressure around Taiwan and the South China Sea.(outlookindia.com)

These developments match Chamath’s core forecast: Xi used 2022 to lock in an effectively open‑ended tenure and that enhanced power has since been expressed in both domestic governance and international strategy. The only clearly subjective piece—“biggest political winner globally”—cannot be decisively falsified and is broadly consistent with how many observers characterized his 2022 power consolidation. Therefore, on balance, the prediction is best judged as right.