Evidence from 2020–2022 shows that a clearly COVID‑altered societal posture in the U.S. (and much of the world) did in fact persist for roughly the 18–24 months after September 2020 that Chamath projected.

By early 2022—about 17–18 months after Sept 2020—large shares of Americans were still behaving in ways very unlike 2019: Gallup found 41% avoiding large events, 28% avoiding public places, 21% avoiding small gatherings, and about 68% reporting mask use in the prior week, all far above pre‑COVID baselines.(news.gallup.com) That is a substantial, ongoing behavior shift relative to 2019, even though it was less intense than in 2020.

Key government restrictions also lined up with his timeframe. Major states only lifted broad indoor mask mandates in February–March 2022 (e.g., California for vaccinated people on Feb. 15, 2022; New York’s indoor mandate in February 2022; Illinois’ statewide indoor mask rule on Feb. 28, 2022).(timesofsandiego.com)(cnbc.com)(toi.org) The federal transportation mask mandate, which affected virtually all air and much public transit travel, remained in force until a judge struck it down on April 18, 2022—about 19 months after Sept 2020.(theguardian.com) These are all clear, society‑wide rules that kept behavior far from 2019 norms well into his 18–24‑month window.

Even beyond mandates, high‑salience institutional signals persisted at least that long. Gallup’s February 2022 data describe social distancing at its lowest point since mid‑2021 but still markedly elevated versus pre‑pandemic life, and the U.S. federal COVID‑19 Public Health Emergency itself was not ended until May 11, 2023 (later than Chamath’s horizon).(news.gallup.com)(hhs.gov) Globally, WHO did not declare COVID‑19 no longer a public health emergency of international concern until May 5, 2023, explicitly noting that countries had only then largely shifted from emergency footing to routine management.(ungeneva.org) Taken together, societal and policy behavior stayed meaningfully different from 2019 at least through early–mid 2022, broadly validating an 18–24‑month forecast.

Because the core claim was directional and approximate—that "this posture" would last around another 18–24 months rather than ending quickly—and because restrictions plus mass precautionary behavior indeed extended into roughly March–September 2022 in line with that window, the prediction is best classified as right (even if some specific emergency designations and long‑tail precautions lasted beyond it).