ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
← Back to hostEpisode
Chamath @ 00:38:27Inconclusive
economy
As part of the anticipated housing correction, average U.S. home prices will decline on the order of 30–40% from their pre‑correction peak levels, making home ownership more affordable for tens of millions of people.
And I do think that that's a really big step in allowing them to feel like they're part of the dream. So you lower asset prices. You can own some stocks. Maybe you own a 401 K, or if you've never had A41K, but your employer offers it for the first time, it may actually make financial sense to put a small amount of it in there. You've never been able to own a home. All of a sudden home prices are whack 30 or 40%.View on YouTube
Explanation

Available housing data since the March 15, 2025 episode show that average U.S. home prices have not fallen anywhere near 30–40% from their recent peak; in fact, major national indexes are still slightly up year‑over‑year:

  • The FHFA House Price Index shows U.S. house prices up 2.2% year‑over‑year in Q3 2025, with a 0.2% quarterly increase, not a large decline. (fhfa.gov)
  • FHFA’s monthly data for August 2025 show prices up 0.4% month‑over‑month and 2.3% year‑over‑year. (fhfa.gov)
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller National Index shows home prices still rising slightly (around 1.3–1.5% year‑over‑year) as of August–September 2025, indicating cooling or flattening, not a crash. (wsj.com)
  • FHFA’s increase in conforming loan limits for 2026 is based on a 3.3% rise in home prices from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, again inconsistent with a major nationwide drawdown. (apnews.com)

In the episode transcript, Chamath talks about home prices being “whacked 30 or 40%” in the context of a broader future housing correction and policy changes, but he does not specify a clear time horizon for when that 30–40% national decline would occur. (speakai.co)

Because (1) as of November 30, 2025 there has been no such 30–40% nationwide drop, but (2) the prediction has no explicit deadline and housing cycles can take years, it is too early to definitively label the prediction as right or wrong. It has clearly not come true yet, but it could still be falsified or fulfilled in the longer term, so the fairest assessment at this time is “inconclusive (too early).”