As of November 30, 2025, the large nationwide housing crash Chamath described has not occurred, but his time horizon (“the next phase of the cycle”) is vague enough that it could still play out in coming years.

Key facts:

• U.S. homeowners currently sit on roughly $34–36 trillion in home equity, an all‑time or near‑all‑time high, according to Federal Reserve–based estimates and industry analyses. One summary notes home equity at over $35 trillion as of March 2025, another puts it at about $34.5 trillion in 2025, and a Mortgage Bankers Association forecast says homeowners have accumulated about $36 trillion in equity. (en.wikipedia.org)
• For homeowners with mortgages (a subset of all homeowners), total net equity in Q2 2025 was about $17.5 trillion, with equity down only 0.8% year‑over‑year—a reduction of about $141.5 billion, not “trillions.” (themortgagepoint.com)
• National home‑price indexes show slowing growth and some real (inflation‑adjusted) erosion, but not a major nominal crash. The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller National Index reported a 3.4% year‑over‑year gain in March 2025, and later data show prices still up about 1.3–1.5% year‑over‑year by late summer/early fall 2025, even though that growth now lags inflation. (spglobal.com)
• FHFA’s own house‑price data for Q3 2025 show about a 3.3% year‑over‑year price increase, which is why it raised conforming loan limits for 2026—again indicating slower appreciation, not a collapse in values. (apnews.com)
• Equity markets did experience a sharp but brief selloff in early April 2025 tied to broad tariff hikes, temporarily erasing more than $3 trillion in stock‑market value, but major indexes recovered by mid‑May. (en.wikipedia.org) That episode has so far not been followed by a housing crash of the magnitude Chamath described.

Putting this together, U.S. housing is clearly cooling: price growth has nearly stalled in nominal terms, some metros have begun to see outright declines, and mortgage‑borrower equity ticked down slightly. But nationwide housing wealth is still near record highs, and the observed pullback has erased hundreds of billions, not trillions, of dollars of housing wealth. That means Chamath’s specific scenario (a “major downward correction” that “whacks” the housing market and wipes out trillions in wealth) has not yet happened.

However, because he did not give a specific deadline and framed it as the “next phase of the cycle,” it remains possible that a deeper correction could occur beyond November 2025. Since the absence of such a crash by this date does not conclusively falsify a cycle‑phase prediction with an open time horizon, the fairest classification today is inconclusive (too early) rather than definitively “wrong.”