Chamath’s call has essentially played out as described.

1. Did a cyclical bottom occur between mid‑2023 and end‑2024?
Within his 12–18 month window, the S&P 500 made a major low on October 27, 2023 at 4,117.37, which became its 52‑week low and has not been undercut since.(statmuse.com) From that point the index rallied strongly, closing 2023 at 4,769.83 and ending 2024 at 5,881.63.(statmuse.com) That October 2023 low has so far been the key trough of the current bull leg (later corrections, including April 2025, bottomed well above it).(spglobal.com) So a durable cyclical low did fall inside his July 2023–December 2024 window, even though the deeper bear‑market bottom was in October 2022.

2. Did the broad US equity market move “materially higher” from that bottom?
From the October 27, 2023 low (4,117) to the December 31, 2024 close (5,882), the S&P 500 rose about 43%.(statmuse.com) Over calendar 2023 and 2024 it gained roughly 24.2% and 23.3%, respectively, for a two‑year increase just over 53%, the strongest such stretch of this century.(spglobal.com) By late 2025, the index is around the mid‑6,000s, implying gains of roughly 60%+ from the October 2023 low, which comfortably qualifies as “materially higher.”(statmuse.com) Other major US indices (Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000) also posted substantial positive returns over 2023–24, confirming broad‑based equity strength even if performance was led by large‑cap growth.(spglobal.com)

3. Did this happen while rates stayed “persistently higher” (not back to near‑zero)?
The effective federal funds rate was about 5.1% in July 2023 and held at roughly 5.3% through the end of 2023 and most of 2024, before easing modestly to 4.48% in December 2024 and around 4% in 2025—far above the near‑zero levels of the 2010s.(ycharts.com) Commentators have explicitly noted that the 2022–24 bull run unfolded despite policy rates staying unusually high compared with prior cycles.(marketwatch.com)

Nuance: Many analysts mark October 12, 2022 (S&P 500 at 3,577) as the bear‑market bottom and start of the current bull market, which is earlier than Chamath’s 12–18 month window.(seekingalpha.com) But within his stated timeframe the market did establish the main subsequent cyclical trough (October 2023) and then advanced dramatically while rates remained well above zero.

Given that the core thrust of his prediction—a significant bottoming phase in that window followed by a large equity rally under persistently higher rates—has been borne out, the forecast is best judged as right, albeit a bit loose on where the overall bear‑market bottom began.